← HP Wolves Den Store Championships HVN Season
Water FractalTier 1
at HP Wolves Den Store Championships HVN Season
decks
4
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
13-7-1
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.2%
avg ELO +5.0 per match
expected value
55.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1418
· median 1412
· range 1287–1559
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1113
Q1 1288
Q3 1453
1563
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.6% | +18.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.9% | +6.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.1% | -11.5 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.2% | +12.1 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Polkhawk | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 39.5% | -7.9 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
